This study considers the trajectories of armed conflict in a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario between 2020-2030. Specifically, it draws on a comprehensive historical dataset to determine the number of countries that might experience rising levels of collective violence, outright armed conflict, and their associated economic costs. It then simulates alternative outcomes if conflict prevention measures were 25%, 50%, and 75% more effective. As with all projections, the quality of the projections relies on the integrity of the…
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COVID-19 is a global challenge that demands researchers, policy makers, and governments address multiple dimensions which go far beyond the implications of this pandemic for health and wellbeing. Just as the UN Sustainable Development Goals call for focus on the connections between development policy sectors, the pandemic has exposed the complex global interdependencies that underpin economies and highlighted fault lines in societal structures that perpetuate ethnic, economic, social, and gender inequalities. Here, the authors highlight…
Civil war is on the rise, as is the targeting of civilian populations and the use of authoritarian conflict management strategies. It is time for a radical rethink of conventional approaches to conflict resolution. Read more
This K4D helpdesk report addresses the question of “What is the evidence telling us about the immediate and medium/longer-term impacts of C19 on geopolitics within the region and for relationships between states in East Africa?” This rapid literature review finds that the medium-to long-term effects of Covid-19 on geopolitics in East Africa are unknown. In the immediate term, the pandemic is likely to put stress on economies and healthcare systems, and thereby have the potential…
This K4D Helpdesk report addresses the question of “What is the evidence telling us about the immediate and medium/longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on conflict and security (e.g. peace, mediation, conflict prevention, peacekeeping) across the region?” Download
This report assesses the impact that Covid-19 is having on democracy around the world. It examines how international democracy support organisations and donors are responding to the challenges related to the pandemic and calls for a stronger and reformulated international democracy support both now and into the longer-term future. Rather than getting immersed in inconclusive debates about which kind of political system is set to deal best with Covid-19, the report calls for a more…
For South Sudan, COVID-19 is simply the newest plague. The world’s youngest country already faces civil war, repression, displacement, economic collapse, climate change, hunger—even swarming locusts. South Sudan’s people enter the fight against COVID under nearly the worst conditions of human development, and with 39 percent of them displaced by warfare. With a government that has been unable to provide even basic services, South Sudanese must rely on their emerging civil society, and international partnerships,…
More than 20 African countries were to hold elections this year. As countries tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, there are valuable lessons learned from important elections held during previous Ebola outbreaks. Read more
The global economic crisis triggered by the spread of COVID-19 has sent many of the world’s developing countries into an economic death spiral. At the first signs of panic in early March, investors fled to the ‘safety’ of deeper financial markets and the US dollar in particular. Capital flight, rising spreads, falling export revenues and collapsing exchange rates compounded an already precarious debt position in many countries, tipping a number into default and leaving many…
This report is divided into four sections. The first explores how the pandemic has affected civil society’s capacity to operate. It covers both practical matters, like the inability to visit communities in person, as well as the issue of shrinking civic space. The second section describes and analyses how local peacebuilders view the pandemic as occasioning violence and stimulating drivers of conflict. The third discusses the dearth of coordination between government and civil society, as…
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