In short, the four scenarios are: 1. Best Case Scenario: A peaceful country… 2. Status Quo: Many uncertainties, selective implementation of R-ARCSS, latent friction among the parties with top leadership of the country seemingly working in collaboration and ostensibly trying to implement reform and transformation agenda of R-ARCSS. However, this is done in accordance with their own vision… Dictatorship: Selective or aborted implementation of the reform and transformation agenda initiated by R-ARCSS. Parliament is unable…
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CSRF Research Repository
The CSRF Research Repository aims to support greater contextual knowledge for policy makers, programme managers, and implementers by providing a searchable repository of research, analysis, and resources, and providing periodic updates on new research and analysis.
Possible developments of movement and settlement patterns and humanitarian needs in the next six months (January – June 2021) after the redesignation of the Protection of Civilians sites. Download
Introduction Problem statement South Sudan has witnessed intermittent civil war and widespread communal and localised violence since gaining independence in 2011. 7.5 million people, 64% of the population, are in need of humanitarian assistance. Taking into account a range of variables that affect South Sudanese access to basic needs and services, these scenarios consider developments that could have humanitarian consequences and impact on access to basic needs within South Sudan over the coming six to…
The report “Monitoring the Scenarios for South Sudan in 2020: Peace the only thing worth pursuing” updates developments in South Sudan based on a 2016 analysis of five possible scenarios for the country. Written by a group of concerned citizens in South Sudan the report warns that the situation in the country is likely to become even worse unless a genuine, inclusive political process can be started immediately. Download
This report about possible developments in South Sudan up to 2020 is based on a study by Jaïr van der Lijn of SIPRI, commissioned by PAX. The report presents different scenarios for South Sudan for 2020. Its purpose is to contribute to the debate on how to stimulate peace, security and development in South Sudan, and to present implications for (inter)national action. Download
This paper describes four possible scenarios for the future of Sudan,defined by two key uncertainties: 1) In 2012, will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? 2) In 2012, will there be a new war between the North and the South, or will there be no war? Download
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