Dealing with uncertainty in famine predictions: How complex events affect food security early warning skill in the Greater Horn of Africa

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Early warning systems are essential tool for humanitarian preparedness and response. The diversity of inputs required, ranging from agricultural production estimates to market price variability and weather forecasts, means that interpreting food security signals is not an easy task. Each of these inputs is fraught with uncertainty which analysts need to assess when making projections about future food security. Understanding the accuracy rates of early warning systems is therefore of paramount importance to enable improvements…

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