The briefing paper explores the structure and the mode of operation of the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group currently fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Focusing on RSF recruitment strategies, war aims and command and control problems, the report finds that the RSF recruitment has fractured the social fabric, affecting its command and control, and that its war economy is predicated on plunder and reliance on smugglers and militarised brokers. The paper provides insights…
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CSRF Research Repository
The CSRF Research Repository aims to support greater contextual knowledge for policy makers, programme managers, and implementers by providing a searchable repository of research, analysis, and resources, and providing periodic updates on new research and analysis.
KEY FINDINGS • Tong Akeen Ngor, the governor of Northern Bahr el Ghazal state, has consolidated his grip on power by buying support, detaining members of the opposition, and ingratiating himself with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir. Tensions have emerged between Tong Akeen and his patron, Vice-President Hussein Abdel Bagi. • The war in Sudan has transformed the political economy of Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Goods— including petrol destined for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—now…
The devastating war in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has also had a profound impact on the country’s neighbours, particularly South Sudan. This is especially the case for areas that border Sudan, including Upper Nile, the Ruweng Administrative Area, and Northern Bahr el-Ghazal (NBG). RVI has been working in NBG under the XCEPT programme since 2018, producing a body of work on the borderland economy and systems of…
This paper examines climate-related security risks in the IGAD region with a particular focus on National Adaptation Planning (NAP). It explores these risks from four pathways contained in the IGAD Conceptual Framework for climate-security nexus, namely: threats to food and water security, climate-induced mobility, historical grievances and cultural practices, and governance and fragility. Read more here
This Working Paper explores the interaction between social protection and conflict in the Horn of Africa. Conflict and political instability are habitual risks identified in the Horn of Africa, where social protection is a well-established field of intervention. By drawing from three country case studies, the paper provides recommendations for development partners on how to use their resources and leverage to strengthen conflict sensitivity of social protection at both strategic and operational level. Read more…
Wetlands are under threat globally, declining at a rate three times higher than natural forests. This isreason for concern because healthy wetlands offer a variety of essential services to humans and arecritical ecosystems in the fight against climate change.1 Yet, the governance of wetlands often fallsthrough the cracks of water governance approaches and institutions in charge of managing rivers,lakes or aquifers.2 Emblematic of this is the Sudd Wetlands [Sudd] in South Sudan. Little is knownabout…
This report explores the association between climate anomalies, population dynamics, conflict and organised violence in Sudan and South Sudan, at the sub-national level and for the years 1989-2015. The analyses are conducted using a spatial approach and with geocoded information on organized violence events, climate anomalies and population dynamics. Our results indicate a positive correlation of temperature anomalies with conflict and organised violence at the local level. Precipitation anomalies also positively correlate with organised violence,…
Conflicts in Africa are increasingly becoming violent and endemic. Many of these conflicts are related to crises of identities, struggles for resources and power contestations. A few of these conflicts escalate to self-determination, separatist movements, and secession. These conflicts mostly transcend national borders and trigger the alteration and redesigning of national borders, which itself becomes a source of continued violent conflicts across borders. For instance, the attainment of independence by South-Sudan in 2013 has raised…
Executive summaryOn 3 October 2020, Sudan’s Transitional Government and representatives of several armed groups signed the ‘Juba Agreement for Peace in Sudan’ (hereinafter ‘Juba Agreement’). This Summary and Analysis paper discusses the Agreement’smain elements, with a particular focus on the main ways in which it impacts the current and future system of government. The main points that are made in this paper can be summarized as follows: 1. The Juba Agreement amends the 2019 Constitutional…
South Sudan became a juridical state in July 2011. Its statehood materialised after protracted north-south civil wars were brought to an end by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The CPA set forth self-rule for an interim period and a referendum on independence for the South Sudanese in January 2011. While the two states split peacefully, post-separation relations between the Sudans has been complicated. This paper explores the unamicable political divorce of South Sudan from…
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