At the intersection of health, climate and conflict risks, four key pathways through which COVID-19 can exacerbate climate-related security risks stand out:
- Increased pressure on livelihoods and resources. The combination of COVID-19 and climate change impacts can put additional stress on livelihoods and resources, and reduce adaptive capacity, which in turn can exacerbate conflict risks.
- Negative impacts on migration as an adaptation strategy. Measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic can increase the precariousness of living and health conditions for migrants and refugees in host countries, while also restricting migration as an important coping strategy.
- Weakened conflict responses and new opportunities for non-state armed groups (NSAGs). The impacts of COVID-19 can impede the delivery of humanitarian aid and obstruct peacebuilding and stabilisation efforts, while opening up new opportunities for the proliferation of NSAGs.
- Increased risks in urban environments and violent protests. In poor urban areas, adding pandemic-related stress to climate pressures might increase the risk for violence and instability.