This special edition of Peripheral Vision examines the short- and medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cross-border conflicts in fragile and conflict-affected states in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. It draws on the work of the X-Border Local Research Network, part of the broader XCEPT Program, in the borderlands of Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen.
While each conflict differs in its particulars, some common characteristics can be observed:
- In contested borderlands, weak states with fragmented authority have had to confront the global pandemic amid conflict, population displacement, and political violence. While the impact of the virus, the progress of the pandemic, and local responses have varied, common challenges have emerged.
- In some contested borderlands, state and nonstate actors alike have exploited the pandemic for military and political advantage, as emergency measures such as controlling the cross-border movement of people and goods have been co-opted into existing cross-border and conflict-related regimes.
- Although the pandemic has intensified conflict in some locations, it may also offer a point of engagement with armed groups who see themselves as legitimate alternatives to the state. Where armed groups have no stake or interest in local governance, on the other hand, the crisis is more likely to lead to escalation than accord.
- Even when they are remote, borderlands and peripheral areas often feel global economic changes most acutely, because of their dependence on trade, labor migration, and other cross-border movement. International anxiety to control the pandemic’s spread at border chokepoints and transit corridors has had unintended consequences, whether through the secondary economic effects of lockdowns or by legitimizing greater border securitization, both of which exacerbate the structural drivers of conflict, including poverty and prejudice.
- COVID-19 has further strained the fragmented international order, which was already struggling to coordinate efforts to prevent and resolve conflict. But by exposing gaps and barriers in cooperation, not least in conflict-affected borderlands, this global crisis could lead to new ways of working. At the very least, the crisis has underscored the value of supporting local research capacity in hard-to-reach areas in order to assess impact and need and inform effective policy.
- COVID-19 has also shown how prevailing economic structures and political relationships depend on the movement of people, goods, and ideas through formal and informal networks and supply chains. External actors who want to reduce conflict and promote positive change in contested borderlands must look beyond conventional, state-based models to understand these rapidly developing systems and new social geographies.