The briefing paper explores the structure and the mode of operation of the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group currently fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Focusing on RSF recruitment strategies, war aims and command and control problems, the report finds that the RSF recruitment has fractured the social fabric, affecting its command and control, and that its war economy is predicated on plunder and reliance on smugglers and militarised brokers. The paper provides insights…
Entries by Joshua Craze
Focusing on the post-oil trend in South Sudan, this paper discusses how the South Sudan’s political economy has changed since the oil shutdown in 2005 to present. The shift, following the civil war in 2012-2013, to a political economy predicated on the apportionment of positions and licenses has intensified inequality in South Sudan and enabled continued elite domination. The emergence of a market economy has facilitated the transformation of the political marketplace. While this form…
This report provides a status update on the Warrap State, with specific reference to – among others – political changes, governor Manhiem Bol Malek’s approach, elections, and difficulties at the border. Read more here
This reports provides a status update on the conflict in Western Equatoria, specifically referring to the political factors: divided cabinet, border dilemmas, and cattle-related issues. Read more here
Though elections are now postulated for next year, South Sudan remains in crisis. Conflict continues to scar the country, and climatic shocks exacerbate already acute resource scarcity, leaving approximately 76 per cent of South Sudan’s population surviving on humanitarian assistance. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir survives by diverting revenues in three key areas—oil production, humanitarianism, and loans from international financial institutions—to the benefit of an elite class in Juba, but at the…
Despite many high-profile interventions, Abyei remains mired in a violent impasse. Conflict between the Ngok and Twic Dinka continues, and the territory’s political future remains in limbo. Attacked from Both Sides: Abyei’s Existential Dilemma—a new Situation Update from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—discusses the causes for the deadlock surrounding this politically fractured territory, and the catastrophic effect conflict has on its civilians. Read more…
Focusing on the 2005-2020 period, the report discusses the political economy among South Sudanese elites. The report explores how the recent reduction in oil production and revenue has shifted the political economy, and related elite loyalty, from the one based on oil to one based on land ownership. The report argues that the new quest for land by elites is likely to lead not only to the deprivation of civilian populations of their land, but…
In Warrap state, home to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and much of the country’s political and military elite, many hoped that the signing of a peace agreement in 2018 would bring an end to the violence that had scarred their country for the previous five years. Instead, in Warrap, violence intensified, and pitted communities against each other in increasingly brutal tit-for-tat attacks that targeted women, children, homes, and the very capacities of communities to…
Upper Nile is in chaos. A once durable alliance between the national government in Juba and the Padang Dinka in Malakal has given way to a much more uncertain situation, in which the regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir sets feuding elites against each other. Disorder has proved an effective tool of rule. In Upper Nile, Kiir’s regime has successfully peeled off Eastern Nuer commanders once loyal to Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army…
A literary essay that tells the story of southern Sudan since 1983, and the emergence of a dominant military class in the country, sustained by international support and the indifference of the diplomatic corps. Link to publication