Ayod County, Jonglei State

DEMOGRAPHY

2008 NBS Census population: 139,282
2021 NBS PES population estimate*: 114,077
2022 UN OCHA population estimate*: 194,396

Ethnic groups: Gawaar Nuer (Rath, Bar)

Displacement Figures Q3 2022: 46,758 IDPs (+27,727 Q1 2020) and 12,198 returnees (-5,655 Q1 2020)

IPC Food Security: November 2022 – Emergency (Phase 4); IPC Projections: December 2022 to March 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4); April to July 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4)

ECONOMY & LIVELIHOODS

Ayod County borders Unity State to the west, Fangak and Canal/Pigi Counties to the north, Nyirol and Uror Counties to the east, and Duk County to the south. Several rivers flow through Ayod County, including the Nile, Gurr, Juwol, and Atar. The Nile flows along the county’s western border and is a major transport artery and natural asset.

Ayod County is part of the eastern plains, sorghum and cattle livelihood zone (FEWSNET 2018). The main activities in these livelihood zones include rearing livestock, supplemented by agriculture and fishing. According to a FAO and WFP report from 2018, 10% of households in the county engage in agriculture. Farmers primarily grow sorghum, maize, groundnut and cowpeas. An estimated 10% of households in Ayod County engaged in farming, with a gross cereal yield of 0.3 tonnes per hectare in 2021 (making it the joint lowest producing county in the country, alongside Twic East), increasing to 0.5 tonnes per hectare in 2022 (putting it on par with some of South Sudan’s least productive counties) (FAO/WFP 2022; FAO/WFP 2023). Livestock normally move towards the river from February to April and return to homesteads from May to June as the rainy season begins. Floods are a significant livelihood hazard as they can limit fishing activities and reduce crop, livestock, and wild foods production. Additionally, cattle raids, livestock diseases, crop pests and drought are major factors affecting livelihoods.

Food insecurity has been sustained in Ayod County. Current IPC projections for Ayod are at Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4) of food insecurity as of November 2022, and are project to remain at Emergency levels until at least July 2023. As recently as February 2020, up to 40,000 people spread across Akobo, Duk and Ayod was estimated to be in Humanitarian Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Moreover, 25% of households in the county meet over 50% of their caloric needs through humanitarian assistance, which is highest in Jonglei State.

In 2021, heavy rains on top of the previous years’ flooding caused devastating damage and large-scale displacement in Ayod county. The affected populations were living mostly in villages the western part of Ayod County. In May 2021, Ayod County authorities estimated 31,380 individuals to have been affected by flooding and that number has likely grown as a result of continued rains (IRNA 2021).

INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES

The county HQ is in Ayod Town. The return to civil war in December 2013 caused significant displacement into and within Ayod County, which placed stress on already scarce resources. The insecurity and conflict further reduced access, especially in remote areas, to supplies and services.  Minimal or no market activities were reported for long periods in Ayod, Fangak, and Canal counties in Jonglei State.

Ayod County is home to one (1) Early Childhood Development centre, forty-five (45) primary schools and three (3) secondary schools.

Ayod County was reported to have nineteen (19) health facilities including seventeen (17) functional health facilities, comprising nine (9) PHCUs and eight (8) PHCCs as of 2022. This means that there were an estimated 0.62 PHCUs per 15,000 people and 1.80 PHCCs per 50,000 people according to the WHO, which ranks Ayod as among the ten counties with the lowest ratios of PHCUs/person in South Sudan. No hospitals were reported in Ayod County.

According to OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2023, nearly 179,000 people in Ayod County have humanitarian needs (up from 152,500 in 2021), which represents 92% of the estimated population of the county reported in the HNO. In addition to food insecurity, protection, child protection, and GBV needs are particularly high compared to the rest of the country.

CONFLICT DYNAMICS

Ayod County sits at the strategic intersection between the Dinka areas of Jonglei to the south and the Lou Nuer heartland to the east, and has been increasingly drawn into both national and subnational conflicts that have played out in Jonglei State since the second Sudanese civil war (1983-2005). These conflicts have placed increasing strains on the relationship between parts of Ayod’s Gawaar Nuer community and the neighbouring Lou Nuer and Dinka communities. Ayod is also the home area of William Nyuon Bany, who was a founding member of the SPLM/A. In June 1983, forces in Ayod under the command of Nyuon joined the nascent SPLM/A in Ethiopia’s Gambella Region, with Nyuon playing an important role in consolidating John Garang’s leadership over Anya-Nya 2 commanders (Wassara 2022, p.47). Ayod was fought over in the 1980s by the SPLM/A and Anya-Nya 2 forces (Madut-Arop 2006), with the SPLM/A ultimately establishing a relatively small garrison in Ayod town by 1987.

Ayod was particularly affected by the 1991 SPLM/A split. During the split, SPLM/A forces engaged in in-fighting in Ayod, with the area ultimately being taken by the SPLM/A-Nasir faction. The county fell within the ‘hunger triangle’ of Jonglei, with the combination of conflict and food insecurity leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of people in 1992 and 1993. Despite close relations between the Gawaar Nuer of Ayod and nearby Dinka communities, forces from Ayod reportedly participated in the November 1991 raids into (predominantly Dinka) areas of south-eastern Jonglei (discussed further in the profile for Bor South County), though some Dinka civilians from northern Jonglei would seek sanctuary from the raids in Ayod. In turn, a number of settlements within Ayod County were destroyed during an SPLM/A counter-offensive in 1992 and 1993, despite attempts by a Nuer prophet to reconcile the Nuer of Ayod and Dinka communities to the south (Human Rights Watch 1993). Meanwhile conflict broke out between parts of the Gawaar and Lou Nuer communities in 1992 (Johnson 2009, p.40). People displaced by the violence in Ayod tended to move north to Malakal or northern Sudan (Thomas 2015, p.152).

Fighting between government-aligned and opposition groups would continue in the area until the early 2000s, as conflicts between parts of the Gawaar Nuer and Lou Nuer communities continued. The Liliir Peace Conference of May 2000 would seek to reconcile the two communities, while a subsequent 2002 Lou-Gawaar conference held in Ayod made progress in repairing relations and establishing peacebuilding institutions to assist in mitigating ongoing raiding between elements of the two communities (PACT Sudan 2006, pp.111-12). In early 2005, a peacebuilding mission was convened in a bid to address escalating conflict between two Gawaar Nuer sections (PACT 2005). Tensions would also increase between Lou Nuer pastoralists and pastoralists from parts of the Hol/Ghol Dinka (of Duk County) and Gawaar Nuer communities in 2005, though mediation efforts by peacebuilders, military commanders, and representatives from pastoralist communities helped to limit conflict (Young 2007; PACT Sudan 2006).

During the years immediately following the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in mid-2005, Ayod was not reported to have experienced the same degree of instability that affected nearby (predominantly Lou Nuer) areas of Jonglei. However, reports of insecurity emerged in 2010, when a joint cattle raid allegedly conducted by a joint group from the Lou Nuer and Hol/Ghol Dinka communities was reported in Ayod (Thomas 2015, p.215). Ayod also experienced conflict relating to the opposition group led by George Athor (discussed further in the profiles for Canal/Pigi and Fangak counties). After being dislodged from neighbouring Fangak County, Athor’s forces relocated to Ayod in 2011, resulting in low-level clashes with the military in Ayod later in the year (Small Arms Survey 2011, p.6).

At the outset of the national conflict (2013-2018), Ayod County was an opposition stronghold, while members of the Gawaar Nuer ‘white army’ (informal community-based self-defence groups, named so as to be distinguished from ‘black’ or formal, uniformed forces) allegedly attacked Duk County in March 2014, resulting in clashes with Dinka militia from Duk and Twic East counties (ICG 2014, p.30). Despite insecurity with parts of the Dinka community to the south, relationships between the Gawaar Nuer and the Padang Dinka of Canal/Pigi County were reported to have remained peaceful during the early stages of the national conflict (ICG 2014, p.31).

After retaking Bor town in late January 2014, the SPLA and Ugandan People’s Defence Forces pushed north towards Ayod. The government took control of Ayod town by late April 2014, though the SPLA-IO retained control of the countryside (ICG 2014). Ayod was again the site of intense fighting in 2014 and 2015 as the SPLA-IO attempted to regain control of Ayod town, with the fighting reportedly resulting in heavy opposition casualties and widespread displacement. Fighting re-escalated in March and September 2017, with limited clashes reported during the spring of 2018. Meanwhile, renewed clashes between parts of the Lou Nuer and Dinka communities in 2017 in Duk County led to the displacement of thousands of civilians to Ayod and an increase in humanitarian needs.

Following the signing of the R-ARCSS in 2018, localised insecurity – including inter-sectional clashes, and cross-border cattle raiding – has escalated in Ayod County. Furthermore, white army mobilisation has been reported on several occasions, including during conflict in Pibor in 2020 and 2021, and again in southern Upper Nile in late 2022. Gawaar Nuer spiritual leaders have played a prominent role in shaping patterns of community mobilisation in Ayod County (POF 2021). As is discussed further in the profile for Pibor County, during the 2020 and 2021 violence in Jonglei parts of the Gawaar Nuer would fight alongside Dinka militias from Duk County, marching together into the Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA). In both years the forces would hold Gumuruk in western Pibor County, before launching raids into more remote areas. The violence follows allegations of raiding by armed youth alleged to be from the GPAA, that has resulted in deteriorating relations between parts of the Gawaar Nuer and Murle communities. The tendency for cattle raids and abductions in and around Jonglei to be attributed to the Murle is discussed further in the profile for Pibor County.

In early 2021 some progress was made in bringing together parts of the Murle, Lou Nuer and Dinka Bor communities as part of the Pieri peace process to avoid a re-escalation of conflict, with the return of abducted children seen as a significant step forward in building trust between communities. However, the exclusion of the Gawaar Nuer from this process was used as the pretext for launching attacks on Murle communities in 2021, which threatened to unravel these limited gains. The Gawaar Nuer have since been included in the peace process (Peace Canal 2021), though some community and spiritual leaders have remained divided regarding their participation.

In 2022, clashes between armed youth from Ayod and Nyirol counties reportedly resulted in dozens of deaths along both sides of the border (Radio Tamazuj 2022a; Radio Tamazuj 2022b). Later in the year, armed youth from parts of the Gawaar Nuer community became involved in the conflict between the SPLM-IO Kitgweng faction and Agwelek factions that affected northern Jonglei and Upper Nile state (discussed further in the profiles for Fangak, Canal/Pigi, Panyikang, Fashoda, and Malakal counties). By September 2022, Ayod was also reported to be hosting a large number of IDPs who fled insecurity in northern Jonglei (Radio Tamazuj 2022c). A joint UNMISS/OHCHR report (2023) reported that a prominent Gawaar Nuer spiritual leader from Ayod County played an important role in mobilising white army forces from parts of Ayod and Canal/Pigi counties between September and November 2022 to engage in the offensive into southern Upper Nile, and also reported that the same prophet was allegedly involved in securing the return of a number of women and children who reportedly been abducted in Upper Nile (UNMISS/UN OHCHR 2023, fn.69). The same report also notes allegations of participation and the provision of firearms and ammunition by local military commanders (UNMISS/UN OHCHR 2023, pp.25-26).

ADMINISTRATION & LOGISTICS

Payams: Ayod (County Headquarters), Kurwai, Kuach-deng, Mogok, Pagil, Pajiek, Wau

UN OCHA 2020 map of Ayod County: https://reliefweb.int/map/south-sudan/south-sudan-ayod-county-reference-map-march-2020

• Roads: A primary road runs north-south through eastern areas of Ayod County via Mogok. The road runs south to Bor town (Bor South County), though was deemed impassable in both the rainy season of 2022 and dry season of 2023. The road runs north to Canal town (in Canal/Pigi County), though the condition of the road is unknown from about 10km north of the junction leading to Waat town, and is deemed impassable up until that point. A primary road runs eastwards, connecting Ayod town to Waat town (in Nyirol County). This road was designated impassable in the rainy season of 2022, though was passable with difficulty between Ayod town and Pathai in the dry season of 2023.
• Two tertiary roads (which run south from Fangak County) cover parts of western and north-eastern Ayod County, respectively. The condition of these roads is unknown.
• A river route along the Bahr el Zaraf runs through western Ayod County, beginning in New Fangak town (Fangak County) and terminating in Wan-Machar in Ayod. Another river routes runs along the Canal Corridor into eastern Ayod County, beginning in Canal town (Canal/Pigi County) and terminating at Mahr in Ayod County.

UNHAS-Recognized Heli-Landing Sites and Airstrips: Gorwai, Jiech, Mogok, Pagil
MAF-Recognized Heli Landing Sites and Airstrips: Ayod, Jiech, Gorwai (both removed from UNHAS December 2022 schedule), Pagil

REFERENCES

FAO/WFP. (2023). Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan. Retrieved 31 July 2023. See equivalent versions of the CFSAM report online for data from previous years.

FEWSNET. (2018). Livelihoods Zone Map and Descriptions for the Republic of South Sudan (Updated). Retrieved 10 July 2023.

Human Rights Watch. (1993). Civilian Devastation: Abuses by All Parties in the War in Southern Sudan. Retrieved 22 September 2023.

ICG, International Crisis Group. (2014). South Sudan: Jonglei – “We Have Always Been at War”. Retrieved 15 January 2024.

IRNA. (2021). IRNA Report: Ayod County, 25 May 2021. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

Johnson, D.H. (2009). ‘The Nuer Civil Wars’ in Schlee, G. and Watson, E. (eds) Changing Identifications and Alliances in North-East Africa: Sudan, Uganda and the Ethiopia-Sudan Borderlands (Volume 3), 31-48. Oxford: Berghahn Books.

Madut-Arop, A. (2006). Sudan’s Painful Road to Peace: A Full Story of the Founding and Development of SPLM/SPLA. Booksurge Publishing.

OCHA. (2021). Humanitarian Needs Overview: South Sudan 2021. Retrieved 10 July 2023.

PACT. (2005). Gawaar Emergency Peace and Reconciliation Meeting. Retrieved 16 January 2024.

PACT Sudan. (2006). Sudan Peace Fund (SPF): Final Report October 2022 – December 2005. USAID.

Peace Canal. (2021). Gawaar and Murle leaders commit to peace. Retrieved 17 January 2024.

POF. (2021). Lessons Learned #3: Adaptive Peacebuilding in Greater Jonglei. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2021). Calm returns to Pibor after 10 days of bloody clashes. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2022a). Jonglei State: Rival Nuer communities reconciled after clashes. Retrieved 17 January 2024.

Radio Tamazuj. (2022b). Jonglei: Tension high in Nyirol, Ayod after deadly inter-communal fighting. Retrieved 17 January 2024.

Radio Tamazuj. (2022c). Thousands of displaced people need aid in Ayod. Retrieved 17 January 2024.

Small Arms Survey. (2011). Fighting for Spoils: Armed Insurgencies in Greater Upper Nile. Retrieved 15 January 2024

Thomas, E. (2015). South Sudan: A Slow Liberation. London: Zed Books.

UNMISS/UN OHCHR. (2023). Attacks against civilians in Greater Upper Nile, South Sudan: August to December 2022. Retrieved 5 January 2024.

Wassara, S.S. (2022). ‘The Sudan’s People’s Liberation/Movement Army: Between separation and unity’ in Bach, J-N. (ed.) The Routledge Handbook on the Horn of Africa, pp.43-52. Abingdon: Oxfordshire.

WFP. (2021). Conflict, climate change and hunger: A Triangle of Despair in South Sudan. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

Young, J. (2007). Sudan People’s Liberation Army: Disarmament in Jonglei and its implications. Institute for Security Studies. Retrieved 16 January 2024.

REPORTS on AYOD

Small Arms Survey/HSBA. (2023). Upper Nile Prepares to Return to War. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

UNMISS/UN OHCHR. (2023). Attacks against civilians in Greater Upper Nile, South Sudan: August to December 2022. Retrieved 5 January 2024.

* Note: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Population Estimation Survey (PES) was published in April 2023 based on data collected in May-June 2021. This uses a different method to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Population Working Group (PWG) figures produced based on a combination of 2008 census data and population movement data up to 2022. The large discrepancies are primarily attributable to these different methods rather than changes in the actual population numbers over time and have been disputed by some civil society and analysts. Although the later PWG figures were produced more recently for the HNO 2023, at the request of the Government of South Sudan the data and method used by the PES is being used as the basis for the Common Operational Dataset (COD) for the UN system for the HNO 2024 and likely beyond. For further detail on this and other sources used in the county profiles, see the accompanying Methodological Note.