ACAPS has developed three scenarios to consider how the global humanitarian system will be impacted over the next six months in relation to COVID-19. This involves considering how changes in donor and recipient countries will affect each other, as well as the possibility that Covid-19 will trigger new humanitarian crises. To achieve this, this report considers the global interplay between countries, and the implications of both primary and secondary of the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures.
The primary purpose is to inform strategic humanitarian decision-making through an understanding of the possible changes in needs for humanitarian assistance and possible constraints in meeting these needs.
The following scenarios consider three ways the global humanitarian context might change in the coming six months. The scenarios do not go into detail about how the virus may affect specific contexts or countries. They are not forecasts; their aim is to offer alternative, possible futures to assist in decision-making.
For each scenario, a description of the possible future over the next six months is followed by an analysis of impacts on the humanitarian situation and response that might be expected. To easily compare the three scenarios, ACAPS has prepared an excel table, which can be accessed HERE. These impacts cover both the impact of the virus itself and the impact of containment measures brought in by governments. A separate report focussing on key areas of concern for each region will be published later in April.
Compounding factors that could occur and impact any of the scenarios are discussed at the end of the document.