The World Health Organization is working on the basis that death rates rise when COVID-19 casualties exceed domestic health service capacity. The response is to require “social isolation” and shutdowns of large swathes of society and the economy. So far, media focus has been on the crisis in China, Europe, and the United States. However, the world’s poorest countries have little public health care capacity, and often also lack effective central governments with any geographic reach or legitimacy to order — let alone enforce and manage — shutdowns. Unless there are mitigating disease dynamics in other places that are not yet understood, the consequences of the ongoing pandemic on poorer countries will be grim.
At the same time, many of these same impoverished countries are also in the throes of violent conflict. We know from experience that the relationship between armed conflict and crisis is complicated and leads to unpredictable results. If this unpredictability is, however, itself predictable — a “known unknown” — can a “smart” response be put in place? The author’s ongoing research at the Political Settlements Research Programme suggests 11 baseline understandings that are likely to be key in designing the most effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in conflict-affected regions.